September 23, 1999
Blowing Up Moscow II: From the Kremlin with Love
In the last Budget File (#29), I hypothesized on the reasons behind the apartment explosions that have occurred in Russia over the last few weeks. Indeed, right after I sent out that piece, another apartment block was blown up in southern Russia. I linked the bombings to Chechen terrorists who have Saudi backing, and I gave a reason why perhaps they were carrying out these attacks.
But while I still think what I wrote previously may be fact, it is certainly only one of the possible scenarios involved. In this essay, I will proffer an alternate scenario, one that has been rumored in the Russian and International press and is perhaps just as plausible as what I discussed earlier. This scenario has the Chechens as peripheral players, and the Russian Government itself as the primary mover.
Moscow is a town of rumors, as I guess all capitol cities are. But the kind of rumors that swirl around the Moscow political scene are so likely, and yet seem so cynical, that they can't be ignored. There are plenty of rumors making the rounds regarding the apartment blasts, and they all have to do with who is responsible for the bombings. And the finger is pointing towards the Kremlin and the federal government.
Now, why would the government instigate such a policy? Why would they destroy buildings and kill their own people. Hey, nothing personal, it's just business. The foremost reason put forward by Russian pundits is that these actions will lead the Prime Minister, Valentin Putin, who is a former KGB officer, to call for a state of emergency during which the armed forces will be given police powers and elections will be canceled. This will allow Yeltsin, or more important, the ones who prop up the old man, to keep hold of the reigns of power. This is something I've read in the press. Now I'm going to run with this scenario.
They have an easy scapegoat for any internal security problems, the Chechens (it's not acceptable to blame the Jews anymore, of course). The police harass anyone with darkish features, and any Chechens are sent packing. It also gives the powers that be a reason to start re-bombing Chechnya. This they had already started to do on a very limited scale, just bombing the supposed bases of Basayev and Khattab, the ones instigating the conflict in Dagestan. But now they have the public support to bomb the capitol of Chechnya, Grozny. They have begun shelling the city, starting with the airport and the energy grid.
Because of the apartment bombings in Russia, the government has been able to shore up support for another conflict in Chechnya. The head of the opposition party Yabloko, Gregory Yavlinsky, was one of the most outspoken critics of the previous war. But this time, him and his party have jumped on the government bandwagon. The government has also learned the one lesson that America learned from Vietnam, don't give the press a free run in a major war. Images of burning Russians and Chechens won't be broadcast across TV screens. It'll be more like Desert Storm, and thus public opinion more malleable.
It seems more than a coincidence to me that the beginning of this second melee regarding Chechnya coincides with upcoming national elections. The same was true of the first conflict; it was part of an election strategy. An easy, quick war to bring up Yeltsin's numbers. In December parliamentary elections will take place, with presidential elections taking place in June. Another war in Chechnya would certainly influence the electorate. And if the parliamentary elections don't go the way Yelstin and his backers would like, they can escalate tensions in the region to the point that before the presidential elections they can cancel the vote and Yeltsin can stay in power, or the elections can be held and Putin, Yeltsin's chosen successor (for now) can use the same levers that Yeltsin used previously to win the election. The Russian general staff has already made plans for another invasion of Chechnya, and the current defense minister seems to be on his way out, to be replaced worth someone more in tune with internal, rather than external, security. This change would also go good for any emergency rule that might take place.
This escalation of tension also comes at a time when the extent of financial corruption within the ruling regime is being uncovered. Billions and billions of dollars of government money and IMF loans have been laundered through US banks into the pockets of Yeltsin's cronies, including his powerful daughter, Tatyana Dyachenko. His daughter's husband has been placed at the center of these financial wrongdoings. This man has already been investigated for his siphoning of funds from Aeroflot, where he held a senior post, and which is owned in large part by Boris Berezovsky, a major Kremlin insider and Yeltsin friend who also has been included in the money laundering scheme. A war in Chechnya would take the focus off this scandal and place it elsewhere.
During the first war in Chechnya, the west said and did nothing. Even though the scale of human rights abuses and indiscriminate killing was on a scale much larger than Kosovo and East Timor put together then multiplied, the world community remained silent. To the West, the US in particular, propping up Yeltsin's regime and getting him re-elected was of the utmost importance. The Kremlin is banking on the West having the same non-reaction this time as well. The last thing anybody wants is a further destabilization of the situation in Russia. If there is a Muslim uprising in the south, terrorist bombings in the country, and perhaps emergency rule proclaimed, the focus on the theft of billions may be lightened or even forgotten so as to keep Russia from imploding. After all, you don't think the West knew that the Kremlin was stealing IMF funds left and right? C'mon. But keeping Russia in reliable hands and under wraps was, and will continue to be, the only major factor influencing Western policy.
Now, I really don't think that the Kremlin is indeed behind the apartment blasts. Rumors like this are always floating around, and they usually turn up false. And whenever a Prime Minister is fired, or some crisis erupts, people left and right are saying that emergency rule and the suspension of parliament or elections are soon to follow, and this hasn't happened yet. It just shows how screwed up the country is that rumors like these are taken seriously. But the reasons I have enumerated for Russia going back into Chechnya I feel are indeed valid. They want another conflict there. That is why they have started to bomb Grozny, where Basayev and Khattab have little influence. They have decided to declare war on the legitimately elected government of Chechnya, who have no control of Basayev's troops. They have decided to go after the moderates as well as the radicals. A completely destabilized Chechnya takes the focus off the Kremlin's misdeeds and puts it elsewhere, in an area where the West really has no influence, where they can do what they like. The recent rumors of Osama bin Laden helping out the insurgents indeed helps legitimize Russian aims in the region to the US. 'Hey! We're fighting the same crazy Muslims you are!'
But in the end the Russians cannot win. And they will radicalize the local Chechen and Dagestani population so that they will all turn to Basayev, as I explained in the last Budget File. Russia, like most ruling governments, think in the short term, what political benefits can we get now, while rebels, be they Chechen or Kurd or East Timorese, think long term, they know that time is on their side, and eventually the lack of vision on the larger parties part will lead to mistakes and their eventual demise. This is how it was in Vietnam, in Nicaragua, etc., etc. While trying to protect their own ass, those in the Kremiln, in the end, are digging their own graves.
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Now on to some good news…
Hey! I got a job! $14 an hour! I'll be rich!
Got a job teaching English, what I do best, here in San Diego. Fortunately, San Diego is a tourist town, so there are a lot language schools here where people come and stay for a month or so and take some classes. So I ripped out the English school pages out of the yellow pages and started dropping off resumes, something I should have done a couple of months ago. Got a job at the fifth place I went to. And I got an interview next week at another place, which I'll go to just to see if they'll pay me more. So soon I'll get my first paycheck and I can't put out the Budget Press Review #3, which has been ready to go for a month.
Can't wait to get back to work. And I'm stoked that it's teaching English as a foreign language. I'll be able to hang out with non-Americans. Hopefully it will tame my traveler's heart a bit, and I won't be constantly wishing I was somewhere else. And the classes are of mixed nationality, with Japanese, Koreans, Arabs and Latin Americans all in one class. I'm looking forward to seeing the interaction between all the diverse people. And, most important of all, it's not am/pm or Longs Drugs. It's not a step down on the resume. I can keep my self-respect. And now, off to letter land.
* * *
Freaky Dick: A Liberal's Sexumentary, Article I.
Re: Budget Files #28: Why Don't You Get a Job!, Letters to the Editors.
Attn: Johnnie B. Baker.
Dear Mr. Baker,
I see it.
Liberal manhood on the right
Of your pants leg
Pushing anvil pleat into corduroy spats
Of a curtain show
Milked
Of a bit of Chomsky
Under the hood.
Political bourbon sops plum
Fishnets into campus showgirls
And velvet
of their understanding.
Girliepoo
* * *
Johnnie,
If you do not know what to write about, then why write at all. Maybe you should hold off until you have an interesting topic and viewpoint to share. When you first began the "budget files" it seemed like you actually had something interesting to say about world events and what your takes on they were. Now this column has turned into your little journal about your life and I don't think anybody really cares. Get back to politics and other world events and save us the boring details of your life, we have our own boring lives to think about.
lynn ryan
f. i. o.
Reply:
Dear Lynn, or should I say Nolan,
So, you obviously haven't read Budget File #29, a Russian politics piece.
Why write when I don't know what to write about? Well, to write, of course. Anyone who is a writer would understand. And even if I don't know what to write about when I start, I find something on the way. As far as my boring life, I understand that not every file is for everybody. You like the politics, while some people can care less. Over the past week, I visited many of my friends that I hadn't seen since my return. And I got a lot of compliments on my 'Why Don't You Get a Job' piece. Something they could relate to.
When I was in Russia, I would also write about my everyday life, but I guess since it was in Russia it made it of some importance in your eyes. Now I'm back in California, and so now I'm going to write about my life in California. Maybe I try to do too much with these things, trying to reconcile my interest in politics with my interest in poetry and literature while tossing in everyday life stuff, but they are all an equal part of me. I don't expect everybody to read every one of the files I send out. Just read the ones that might be interesting to you.
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… loved the last article about that Muslim stuff, something I'm as ignorant as a Kentuckian about…
Lionel
D.C.
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I really enjoyed reading your last budget file, and found it really informative and well-written.
Brenda
Austin TX
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Until next time…
#31
October 8, 1999
Idiots Rule!
Am I the only one in the US that thinks the Reform Party is the biggest joke since Schwartzenegers last comedy? I mean, c'mon, Donald Trump? I mean, has America fallen so far down into the abyss that people seriously consider this guy as a legitimate candidate for president? I mean, have the people decided that Clinton was indeed too puritanical? Or that Clinton is such a great president that maybe it's a good thing to have a womanizer, a liar, a media whore as president, and who can be all these things better than Trump. I mean hell, he even owns casinos! Talk about rebuilding the moral framework of America! But then Trump is just what the world needs. The Donald leading the way towards peace in the Middle East. (He can help develop Gaza with his connections in real estate and construction!) He would certainly know how to deal with those unruly Slavs in Russia and Serbia, having tossed out that old Czech wife of his, Ivana.
Of course, there is know way on God's green earth that Trump would ever be elected president, and I would think he realizes this. He is not a stupid man. He's just an egomaniac who loves the spotlight, and Butthead in the Governor's Mansion, Jesse Ventura, is giving it to him. And the media, being the media, jumps all over it. I mean, they're bored. They will chomp on whatever scraps are tossed to them by whatever marginal political force and blow it up all out of proportion. Just look at last week's cover of Newsweek. A cover article on the 2000 Presidential race, with Jesse, Warren Beatty, and Trump, if I remember correctly. Three people who haven't announced their candidacy and besides who have no chance of ever becoming president.
I mean, sure, nobody thought Jesse would be governor, and he is, but the guy seems so intent on shooting himself in the foot that he will never be taken seriously for president. I mean, nobody takes him seriously as governor, except the people who elected him as a joke, I'm sure. Look at all the brouhaha over that Playboy interview. Now, he didn't really say anything any one of my drunken misogynistic friends might say. But Jesse wasn't drunk! And my friends are, well, my friends! I saw him on Meet the Press and he gave his cop-out reply that I've since heard over and over again. "I'm me. And I'll always be me. At least I'm honest." Well, that's just great, Jesse. You be you. And you know something? You're a nut. And you're stupid. Any politician who is not a Marxist that says organized religion is for weak people is just stupid. And you are you. Oh, and by the way, a bra is not a fabric. Nylon, cotton, silk, those are fabrics. A bra is an article of clothing.
The whole idea behind Jesse wanting Trump to run for president is because he want's to do so himself four years later. It's all about money, of course, and Trump has a ton of it. Donald can spend a bunch of his money, and there are enough lost souls in this country that would vote for him that the Reform 'Party' will qualify for matching funds for Jesse's run. It's that simple. It's not like he'll self-destruct before then.
* * *
And while I'm on the subject of idiots running for office, there was a reason I mentioned Ahhhnold S. earlier. It seems he's getting a hard-on for running for governor of my beloved home state, California. Will it ever end? When I hear things like this I pray for Armageddon. Maybe mankind doesn't deserve to live anymore. At least we know he'll be tough on crime, right? And he can show his old greased-up body building movies in West Hollywood, Palm Springs, Laguna Beach and San Francisco to lock up the gay vote. And remember, he's married to a Kennedy! At least there's no chance of him being president, him being a foreigner and all.
But at least Ahhhnold makes big budget blockbuster movies (at least he used to). Its not like he made B-Movies and TV shows that were quickly forgotten. Or starred in ads for cigarettes. Like Ronald Reagan. And that's what scares me. We've had an actor for president. There is a precedent for all these crackpots running for office, and he comes from California. The man who set the stage for Gopher from Love Boat becoming a congressman from Iowa. Or Sceeter from Dukes of Hazard becoming a congressman from Georgia. Or Sonny Bono becoming a congressman from California. And now, wherever I turn, I keep hearing Reagan being called a great president. Yeah, Washington, Lincoln, FDR, and Ronnie. As the old saying goes, nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people. Or something like that.
I'm not afraid of the Y2K bug. I'm afraid of what might follow. What a way to start the new millenium.
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Hi Johnnie!
Your reports on the situation in Russia -including all the fascinating background info - have been quite interesting and informative, good work man! I'm looking forward to continue reading your analysis on the subject.
B. Kagan
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keep writing your files last two were pretty cool.
anesa
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…vis a vis your second theory of the Russian bombing, that it was staged by Yeltsin to justify killing the elections, that very similar allegations are made about the Romanian revolution of 1989...that the violence was staged to justify the new/old leadership seizing control.
Peter Rashkin
Reply-
About the Romanian 'revolution'. In Andrei Codrescu's book "The Hole in the Flag" the author truly comes to believe that it was nothing more than a palace coup, and that has been generally accepted. But that is quite different than the scenario that i contemplated. Elections were not coming in Romania. There will be no palace coup. the violence won't be a screen to overthrow Yeltsin. The violence might be a screen to keep him in power.
so although in both instances there was/might be a cynical use of violence for political means to keep control in the hands of those in power, they were very different circumstances. I would hesitate to draw too many parallels.
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…you should put your explanatory message at the bottom of the file, like most of the other list-servs do. That way, your real target audience skips to the story they want to read, while new subscribers can glance through the story and then read the by-line message at the end. Just a thought.
be glorious,
Donovan
Reply-
OK, here ya go…
Budget Files
